2002 Enrollment Update Marlboro Schools
October 2005:
The Marlboro schools (K-8) enrolled 92 more students this year in K-8 than last. Net migration into the schools was 342 (246 into grade one, 72% of intake), but K/8 replacement was an offset of -250. (The entering K of 426 is 250 smaller than last year's graduating grade 8 of 676.) SE/POP also grew, by 53.
The district has grown 611 (K-8) in the past five years, while 1,232 new housing units were permitted and over 2,256 existing homes sold (2002-2005). SE/POP increased 83 with the opening of MELC. The state Dept of Health's Center for Health Statistics, in a December 2005 report on births, advised NJ births fell 5.1% between 1990 and 2003.

October 2004:
The district has grown 1,732 over last decade, 1994-2004 (+41.9%).
Growth this year over last was 57, the net of:

Grade 1 walk-in of 207;
Entering K 296 smaller than last year's graduating gr. 8 (428-724);
Net other migration (gr. 2-8) of 170;
SE/POP decrease of 24
= 170 + 207 = 377 - 296 = +81 - 24 = 57
District enrolled 5,941 in Oct 2003, has 5,998 students this fall.
March 27, 2004
Enrollment projections

Until 2000 NJ school districts were permitted to use either percent-of-population or standard cohort projections in their long range plans (New Jersey Administrative Code 6:22-4.1). After the Educational Funding Construction law was passed in July 2000 (PL 2000, ch. 72), educational facilities code was rewritten and percent-of-population was dropped as an enrollment projector. Under NJAC 6A:26 NJ districts use cohort projections for enrollment estimates. The NJ Dept of Education worksheet, required with referendum filings since 2000, is online Under code, projections are to be no more than one-year old, ie, in 2003 should be based on the 2002 or 2003 school year opening (October) enrollment figures.

Projections are updated every fall, to incorporate the latest year of community change (housing sales, starts and net migration) in estimates of upcoming enrollments. A projection is for five years forward, as the children born in the latest calendar year are the Kindergarten class five years from now (born in 2003 will generally enroll in K in 2008).

Projections done for Marlboro in 1999 did not include planning, then, for the MELC and a quadrupling of the POP enrollment.


The 2001 projection for the 2003/04 school year was: K-8, 5784 plus 79 special education and 30 POP.
The fall 2003 actual enrollment was: K-8, 5784 plus 76 special education and 81 POP.

Research consultant Sara Weissman, who has worked with the district over the past seven years, presented an update on enrollments to the Board of Education on Dec. 8, 2003.
The Marlboro schools grew by 116 between Oct. 2002 and 2003. The 68 increase in gr, K-8 (another +48 in SE/POP) is the lowest intake since 1991 (the last NJ recession). While inmigration (+181) and grade 1 intake (+189) remain high, the gap between the departing grade 8 and entering Kindergarten is also growing. The 2003 Kindergarten of 421 is 302 smaller than the 2002/03 departing grade 8. (-723 + 421 = -302.) Home sales are yielding enrollment at a rate of .25 student per title transfer. Between 2000 and 2002, 1,501 homes sold and enrollment grew 376. There were twice as many sales of pre-existing homes, 2000-2002, as new construction permits issued.

While the district has grown 60% (+2,169) over the last 15 years, it is easing to a slower growth rate. The 2003 Kindergarten is only 3 students larger than the 1994 K class. A rise is local births has been offset by a lower perrcentage growth between birth and Kindergarten registration. In 1995 Kindergarten was 432, 148% of local births. In 2003, K is 421, 106% of births. Over eight years Twp births rose 108 (from 291 to 399), but the classes enrolling from those birth years decreased by 11 (from 432 to 421). The current enrollment projection is for another 665 students by 2007.

The district has been contacted by Masur Consulting, the firm preparing the Township Master Plan, and information on current enrollment impact from Twp housing has been provided to Masur. (Oct. 2003: 5,941 students from 12,386 housing units = .48 student/housing unit, K-8)

Research consultant Sara Weissman, who has worked with the district over the past six years, presented an update on enrollments to the Board of Education on Dec. 10, 2002.

OCT. 2002: the district has grown 155 since last year, opening this fall at 5,825. The 1999 projection for this year was 5,810. Growth is the net of 434 in-migration (248 into grade 1) and a Kindergarten that was 279 smaller than the 2001 grade 8 graduated last year: 434-279 = 155. The Marlboro schools enroll 2,101 more students than they did 14 years ago, in 1988.

There were 76 respondents to the grade 1 survey. All but six said they chose private K for the all-day program. Census 2000 reports that among families having children under 6-years, 49% have all parents working. (The county figure is 51.2% of families, the state 56%). Six families report using K programs in the communities from which they moved. One-fifth (20.3%) of respondents moved to Marlboro in the last two years, 39.2% between 1997 and 2000 and 40.5% before 1996.

Housing indicators are stable. The NJ Dept of Labor reports 258 building permits issued in 2001, 226 through October in 2002. The Dept of the Treasury reports 508 home sales in tax year 2002, 1,931 for 1999-2002. Population changes in 600-700 housing units per year in Marlboro.
The NJ Dept of Education has updated their projective worksheet to a ratio history of 1997-2001, which means an estimate incorporating three years of a strong economy, two of downturn. The district has updated this worksheet and also prepared a new standard cohort projection through 2007. The current estimate is for an increase of 960 students by 2007, 100 less than the Marlboro increase of 1,073 between 1997 and 2002.

From earlier reports to the Board
1998 Enrollment Update

District growth over the last decade has been driven largely by 100 or more children registering in Marlboro schools for grade one, in July and August of each year. The K to 1 "walk in" the last 5 years has been half or more of district growth.

YearGr 1
Intake		% of K-8
Growth
199414456.7
199511944.7
1996112100.9
1997143107.5
199815456.4
199917459.4
200017242.5
200120451.0
200224858.8
2003189163.0

A review of the 1999 summer grade 1 walk-ins showed 60 students were new to the community, 391 had been in the Marlboro K in 1998/99 and 128 (22.1% of grade 1, 1999/2000) had used a full day private K in 1998/99 instead of the township schools.

1997 Pre-school Survey
A survey was sent home with students in grades K and 1 to determine the potential pre-school population in their homes--their younger brothers and sisters. A sampling of 400 returns indicated:

http://www.gti.net/weissman/marl/index.html
6 November 1998, updated 10 December 2002
Property of the Marlboro Township Board of Education