Enrollment studies

2005 LRFP: enrollment projectionsAugust 1, re: NJ DOE projections
1. Source of 2005/06 enrollment numbers in history is unclear. Compare your fall 2004/05 to 2004 state numbers
2. NJ Dept of Health has released 2003 birth data. Compare that number to birth figure in state worksheet for school years 2008-2010 (figure is repeated over the three years). Example: DOE ues 842 for one district for which DOH has reported 926.
3. SCSE figures seem to be low? Check against your enrollments, last two years.
4. Pre-K is based simply on total local birth data. Adjust this figure as your programs require.

July 2005

You probably do not need an enrollment study.
Note legend on the DOE cohort.xls
Complete and submit this form only if the historic enrollments or births in the 2005 LRFP
website sohort-survival projection are not considered to be accurate and do not produce viable projections.
Log in to your LRFP page and pull your district enrollments, posted by the DOE.
Compare DOE figures to your own standard cohort projection, base year 2004/05.
Only if the two sets of numbers differ greatly will you need to prepare a justification for an alternate filing (NJAC 6A:26)
For 2004 births: if your municipal health department(s) do(es) not count these, you can estimate them from official data.
1. divide local 2003 population by 1,000
2. divide 2003 births by population divisor (a, above) to get birth rate/1,000 local population.
3. multiply 2004 population by local birth rate = 2004 estimated births (K in 2009)
GIS is only useful for determining sending district housing load on schools. Most NJ communities see 40% of population migrating in a five-year period. Geographic distribution of students will not hold up, as a planning tool.
For mapping, talk to your county Planning Board and local planner about GIS. Ask what data layers (zoning? number of housing units? environmental areas?) are included and on what basis another public entity might have access to the mapping.
Last age distribution mapping was Census 2000, tiger.census.gov Includes mapping of school districts

Resources:
Municipal populations, 2000-2004--your file is first three letters of county and "est04", as somest04.htm is Somerset County towns.
Home sales, per NJ Dept Treasury--search is: coefficient county_name Example: coefficient Mercer
return will be 4-yr record of home sales in your town(s). Use Class 2 (residential) column.
Building permits, by town, 1990-2005.
Births, municipal,1998-2002 (K, 2003-2007).
Need 2003 birth number? Contact author.